Future House Prices Are Dependent Upon Future Loan Terms
Topics: housing, real estate, buying real estate, housing bubble, real estate bubble, house for sale
Every homebuyer operating in the deflation of the housing bubble needs to consider what loan terms will be available in the future. At some point, most buyers become sellers. The future buyer will likely need to borrow most of the money necessary to complete a real estate transaction. The availability of credit and the loan terms this future buyer will face is the primary determinant of the price this buyer will pay for real estate.
During the rally of the housing bubble, buyers did not concerned themselves with the day they were going to become sellers. Why would they? There was an endless demand for properties, and buyers were paying whatever was asked. If they wanted a price above current market values to pay off a loan, all they had to do was wait. Once the bubble burst and home prices started to decline, the conditions people were accustomed to during the rally dramatically changed.
Anyone considering buying a home in the aftermath of a crash should think about the buyer who is going to buy their home from them at some point in the future, and more specifically, what debt-to-income ratio and loan terms this future buyer will utilize. This is important, because the amount of money this take-out buyer will pay for the home is completely dependent upon these variables. At most, a house is only worth what a buyer can pay for it. In a declining market with few qualified buyers, many of those qualified buyers will only make offers if the deal is exceptional or simply wait for further price declines.
In a market environment where prices are detached from fundamental valuations, bubble buyers face a daunting challenge just to break even on their purchase when the time comes to sell it. A future buyer must have favorable borrowing terms allowing for a high degree of leverage or they may not be able to borrow the prodigious sums borrowers during the bubble rally were able to obtain.
If a future buyer is not able to borrow as much with their income as bubble buyers, then wages must increase over time to permit future borrowers to borrow the same sum and allow a bubble buyer to avoid a loss. Unfortunately, it will take many years for wages to catch up to bubble prices. Even when this occurs, and a seller can recover their purchase price, inflation will have diminished the value of those dollars. If the prices are adjusted for inflation, many bubble buyers will never see an inflation adjusted breakeven price.
For all our wisdom and collective experience, none of us knows what the markets will do next. Like an ocean current or a raging river, a financial market charts its own course. It is fickle and feckless and flows without regard to our hopes and dreams. The ebbs and flows of financial markets are meaningful to us, but in reality they are just movements in price; nothing more. Price rallies make homeowners blissful and renters bitter, while price declines make homeowners gloomy and renters gleeful. These feelings and emotions are independent of movements in price. The market just moves, that is all it does. It is benign, yet dangerous; it is indifferent, yet demonstrative; the market is a paradox which we must simply accept.
Despite the difficulty in market forecasting, many who have examined the residential real estate market point to continued declines through 2009 and beyond.
Lawrence Roberts is the author of The Great Housing Bubble: Why Did House Prices Fall?
Learn more and get FREE eBooks at: www.thegreathousingbubble.com the author’s daily dispatches at The Irvine Housing Blog: www.irvinehousingblog.com
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